So why did the homophobes pass Prop. 8 and not attack domestic partnerships? It’s kinda of long explaination. In 2000, Californians approved Prop. 22 which was a law stating that marriage was between a man and a woman. After the 2006 election, conservatives in California started to worry that the California Supreme Court might strike down Prop 22 as unconstitutional so they started to collect signatures for Prop 8. They had to decide whether they were going to go after only marriage or domestic partnerships as well.

They looked at the 2006 election in Arizona concerning gay marriage/partnerships and decided not to attack domestic partnerships. In 2006, Arizona had on the ballot an initative to ban gay marriage and domestic partnerships. Now Arizona is a pretty conservative place, so it was shocking when the ban was defeated in November. The defeat was largely due to the fact that the ban included not only marriage, but domestic partnerships as well. The proponents of Prop 8 looked at the Arizona election and decided to go only after gay marriage. Incidentially, this year Arizona passed a gay marriage ban, which tacitly allows for domestic partnerships, by a large margin.

Domestic partnerships are wildly popular in California. Any attempt to strike domestic partnerships will likely fail. In fact, an ultra-conservative group attempted to circulate a petition to ban gay marriage AND domestic partnerhships, but they couldn’t get enough signatures to qualify for the ballot. They is some talk about the homophobes attacking domestic partnerships, but it’s likely not going anywhere.

If the courts don’t throw out Prop 8, then it’s likely going to be on the ballot again in 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, as long as it takes to repeal. Unlike some states, California has no ban on voting over and over again. Likewise a Prop 8 repeal can be put on either the primary or general election ballot, and in presidential years there are two primary elections. So in the next six years Californians can vote seven more times on a repeal. For example in the last six years, Californians have voted five times not to require parental notification or consent for a minor to have an abortion, and we are expected to have to vote this down again in the next election. California politics is a contact sport.

The one encouraging aspect of Prop 8′s passage is the youth vote, as sociallytangent pointed out. Us young’uns don’t generally have problems with TEH GAYS!!! the way the old racist/sexist/homophobic crowd does. I agree with the sentiment that gay marriage will probably come back to California as a result of changing demographics.

…but I’m not sure I’m OK with the idea that we can ‘wait out’ civil rights. The one thing I’m not real clear about (I’ve read the law but damn if I understand it) is whether CA’s domestic partnership rights are EXACTLY the same as marriage, or not. In most states, civil unions are NOT the same as marriage in terms of their actual legal status. If CA’s domestic partnership laws really DO provide for the EXACT SAME rights, then I’m confused about why Prop 8 was put together to begin with – shouldn’t the homophobes have gone after the domestic partnership law instead? Brian, with your experience with law, am I misreading something about the domestic partnerships?

While the initial exit polling data did support your conclusions, the full range of information we have access to now indicates otherwise:

538 article on the myths of Proposition 8

It’s important that we don’t demonize African-Americans in our haste to find problems. We need to address that particular issue with more voter education and friendship; fostering racial negativity, even mildly, is simply not productive. However, you are correct that it “is only a matter of time.” As others are saying, the repeal will happen one funeral at a time. The older generation of voters (who were really the voting bloc most responsible, as the article I linked points out) will eventually die off and be replaced with more tolerant people.

And the best part? Since the California constitution is so easy to amend, we can just throw another initiative out as often as possible. The real problems of the election are Arkansas, Arizona, and Florida, since the latter will require a vast shift in the mindsets of the population (or a miracle of the judiciary) to be reversed.

* – e.g.: FiveThirtyEight.com: Prop 8 Myths

The one thing that particularly upsets me about Prop 8 is that 70 percent of African-Americans voted “yes” and put discrimination into the California constitution. Had Obama not been the nominee the African-American vote would have not turned out as much as it did and Prop 8 would have been defeated.

It’s only a matter of time before California gets gay marriage. Prop 22, which was a law to ban gay marriage, passed by a 22-point margin eight years ago. Prop 8 passed by four. In two or four years, Prop 8 could easily be repealed.